Place yer bets
November 1, 2004
I’m too soused to try to explain why I made it like this. Consider this a projection of my wishful thinking. Go and make your own map (Flash required).
5 Comments to Place yer bets
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MN but not OH or NM? Possible, but the margins from 2000 suggest the opposite. I predict 296 for Bush. That’s every state he won in 2000 (except NH, which I think may be contrarian) plus the states that were extremely close: Iowa, New Mexico, and Wisconsin. Key factors: voters don’t trust Kerry on foreign policy, and GOP GOTV.
Details and 2000 data at pajamasphere.com/election2004/prediction.html
For those who are predicting a major swing to Bush: add NH plus the remaining 3 swing states (MI, MN, PA). That’s 348. Which one first? The Horserace Blog’s custom poll aggregate (after throwing out polls whose methodology he rejects) has Bush ahead in PA, 47.53% to 46.87% with +/- 1.7% margin of error.
I honestly don’t think Bush can survive the inevitable litigation in Ohio.