Comments on: Place yer bets

By: OF Jay

OF Jay — Tue, 02 Nov 2004 16:18:34 +0000

I honestly don’t think Bush can survive the inevitable litigation in Ohio.

By: Pajamasphere

Pajamasphere — Tue, 02 Nov 2004 15:24:30 +0000

MN but not OH or NM? Possible, but the margins from 2000 suggest the opposite. I predict 296 for Bush. That’s every state he won in 2000 (except NH, which I think may be contrarian) plus the states that were extremely close: Iowa, New Mexico, and Wisconsin. Key factors: voters don’t trust Kerry on foreign policy, and GOP GOTV.

Details and 2000 data at pajamasphere.com/election2004/prediction.html

For those who are predicting a major swing to Bush: add NH plus the remaining 3 swing states (MI, MN, PA). That’s 348. Which one first? The Horserace Blog’s custom poll aggregate (after throwing out polls whose methodology he rejects) has Bush ahead in PA, 47.53% to 46.87% with +/- 1.7% margin of error.

By: RIGHT ON RED >>

RIGHT ON RED >> — Tue, 02 Nov 2004 07:14:32 +0000

My Prediction(s)
Hey, slow down that bandwagon! I wanna hop on board. Here’s my prediction, an even 300 for Bush:

Here’s what I fear. Let’s face it folks; it could happen – 299 for Kerry:

I want to say Hawaii is going Bush, just for fun, but why pile o…

By: Blogs of War

Blogs of War — Tue, 02 Nov 2004 03:52:46 +0000

Election Alert: Blogs of War Prediction
I have a few different scenarios mapped out and while predictions in this race are risky sitting on the fence isn’t much fun. I have a feeling that analysts can throw conventional wisdom out the window for this one. Unfortunately, that’s all we real…

By: Les Jones's Blog

Les Jones's Blog — Mon, 01 Nov 2004 05:37:24 +0000

Bloggers, Place Your Bets on the 2004 Elections
Psychics have an easy job. Just make a bunch of predictions. When you’re wrong, keep quiet. When you’re right, remind people endlessly. So for the 2004 election I’m keeping track of predictions to see which ones pan out. I’m concentrating on blogge…