Before the Democrat convention and tensions were running high between HRC and BHO, I placed a silly bet amongst my friends that she would would broker the convention in her favor and pull the nomination right from under his feet. The total toll? Lunch for three people, on separate occasions.

This bring me to my latest bet, this time with Julian Sanchez. A few months ago, Larry C. Johnson at No Quarter floated the idea of a “Whitey” tape featuring none other than the lady who has never been proud of her country until her husband got into the limelight, give or take a few events. The rumor went nowhere. Now, a new rumor has surfaced about BHO’s status as a natural born citizen, which I will discuss in a little bit. The subject of Julian’s bet isn’t so much the citizenship question as BHO’s wife’s reaction, which the African Press blog claims is on audio tape. I don’t believe there is such an audio tape. So I bet instead on the “Whitey video” surfacing some time before the election.

If it does, it will sink not just Senator McCain’s campaign but that of just about every Republican running for office.

Because the theatre of war has been prepped so smoothly by the BHO campaign, any questions as to his character have now been characterized as racist, or irrelevant. The “Whitey tape,” or a Kenyan birth certificate showing up now—as opposed to the Democrat primaries—would be treated with as much revulsion from the Left as the Right did with the Dan Rather TANG bogus documents of the 2004 election.

All that energy lost at browbeating and investigating and proving provenances would merely alienate voters. Whom do you think would maintain a calm, clear voice, and with a sly smile say “this is politics as usual, listen to me?”

So, am I betting that such a thing would happen, thus sinking McCain’s candidacy, despite my support of McCain? Yes. The odds? Very slim.

So why risk driving down to DC from the Baltimore area, and paying eight bucks a beer at an overpriced bar? So I have the perfect excuse to meet Julian Sanchez and maybe Megan McArdle, Radley Balko and James Joyner.