I know I’m late to the game but I’m placing my bet this close to the election:

My bet on a McCain victory scenario: 273-265

I’m calling PA, OH, and FL for McCain and VA, NM, CO for BHO. There’s a few other scenarios for a McCain victory, all of which I would consider wildly optimistic:

277-261: Scenario above, but McCain gets CO and BHO gets NV.

286-252 HillBuzz Map:

HillBuzz map: 286-252

I have to hand it to the guys at HillBuzz. Natives of Chicago, they have always been against BHO since the primaries. I will acknowledge that they can not defeat BHO without the Republicans, but in a way they are right. This is their fight, and we are here to help them. The PUMA factor is strong, and to be honest, I trust their agenda, because, if you move theirs a little, just a little to the Right, they’re mine, too.

And my final McCain victory scenario, which I will call here “Obama and the Embarassment of History,” 303-226: HillBuzz map, and throw in CO, MN, and IA in McCain’s favor.

The bases of these scenarios are more anecdotal than statistical. They are conjecture based on my understanding of how states have trended (statistical), but also the cultural aspect of the state (anecdotal). I also factored in current and recent events that have tipped the scales a certain way.

In no scenario did I concede OH to BHO, even though McCain can still win by flipping PA and keeping VA, from the 2004 election results, for one because this case might happen, but I doubt that CO and NM will go to McCain. This is such a way-out prediction that it doesn’t warrant much time.

So that’s that. Less than 24 hours before we know who the president-elect is.